Wednesday 11 June 2008

Has the market reached it climax?

It's actually several markets, and one of them - the working/ lower middle-class suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney - is past tipping point and in decline.
Wealthy suburbs in Sydney and Melbourne may be on the verge, with the declines in the stockmarket bringing to an end the "turn it into bricks and mortar" approach to locking in share trading profits. There may be some major declines there, as people who are being cruci- fied by margin calls are forced to liquidate.
Overall, the market has to be topping. Our bubble almost turned in 2004 - and if it hadn't been for Howard's doubling of the flats buyers grant and halving of the rate of capital gains tax (when owners sell an investment property), it probably would have. Those populist policies restarted the bubble as it began to falter. It might have another year left in it, by which time house prices would have tripled in less than 20 years - whereas the dreaded consumer price index (and wages!) has risen by just over 50 per cent.

Yeah mates keep it going...

Cheers!

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